The Stanley Cup Final is here—and we’re getting a rare back-to-back rematch between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. Last year’s seven-game thriller ended in heartbreak for Edmonton, with Florida pulling off a gritty 2-1 win in Game 7. But what do the numbers say about this year’s showdown?
Let’s dig in.
Last Year’s Battle: Closer Than It Looked
In 2024, both teams arrived in the Final with matching goal differentials:
| Team | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | 63 | 47 | +16 |
| Florida | 55 | 39 | +16 |
Using the Net-Efficiency formula:
(Team A GF + Team B GA) – (Team B GF + Team A GA)
The 2024 Final boiled down to even footing, just as the series length suggested. But here’s the kicker: over the 7-game series, Edmonton outscored Florida 23 to 18, giving them a +5 goal difference in the Final. On paper, they should have won.
Efficiency Edge (2024 Final): Edmonton +10
Result: Florida wins in 7.
This was a perfect example of how stats can’t always predict hockey’s chaos.
2025 Numbers Enter the Chat
Now let’s break down what each team has done this postseason:
| Team | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | 65 (+2 vs. 2024) | 45 (–2 vs. 2024) | +20 |
| Florida | 66 (+11 vs. 2024) | 39 (same as 2024) | +27 |
Edmonton has improved modestly—more goals scored, fewer allowed, and their defense has tightened significantly in recent games, allowing just 1.88 GA over the last 3 games in each of their first three playoff series.
But Florida has been lethal. They’ve scored more than any other playoff team, while maintaining the exact same defensive stats as last year. That means they’re not just surviving—they’re overwhelming.
2025 Net-Efficiency Preview
(Edmonton GF + Florida GA) – (Florida GF + Edmonton GA)
→ (65 + 39) – (66 + 45) = +3 for Florida
So by the numbers, Florida has the edge again, albeit a slim one.
But remember: Edmonton had a +10 rating in last year’s Final—and still lost. That’s the beauty (and brutality) of playoff hockey.
What This Rematch Means
- Florida: If they win again, this cements their place as a dynastic force—back-to-back Cups, elite defense, and a dangerous scoring core that keeps improving.
- Edmonton: This is a revenge tour. McDavid and Draisaitl have elevated their games yet again. The defensive structure is better. If the Oilers can solve Bobrovsky and win key road games, they might finally bring the Cup back to Canada.
Prediction? Not Yet.
You could flip a coin and still come away uncertain. Both teams are peaking. Both have unfinished business.
- Florida has consistency and the edge in overall performance.
- Edmonton has momentum, star power, and maybe a little revenge-fueled magic.
One thing’s for sure: we’re in for another classic.